money markets / policy

Ministry of Silly Walks
Trying to bite off the hand that feeds you is a strange way for a debtor nation to reward its creditors for their largesse....
1 February 2006 - Gareth Morgan

A Bad Workman Blames His Tools
Patience is a virtue for central bankers. Wrong decisions that go uncensured make a mockery of accountability....
16 November 2005 - Gareth Morgan

The Hard Landing Scenario
The big dipper crashing on to the deck is becoming more likely as government competes with the private sector for scarce resources. ...
24 March 2005 - Gareth Morgan

Knowing how to control inflation doesn’t make it happen
The RBNZ is inching rates higher. We all expect it to, so the potency of monetary policy is lessened. Price cycles arise from far more fundamental drivers than the central bank of a small country can hope to manage....
9 September 2004 - Gareth Morgan

Uncertainty, Expectations and Double-Think
Interest rates are rising, we all want to know how far and for how long? Games between financial markets and the Reserve Bank provide a clue....
25 August 2004 - Gareth Morgan

Motorbikes, Monkeys and Money
Riding a bike in slippery conditions requires a steady hand. So does monetary policy when exchange rates are disturbed....
11 June 2004 - Gareth Morgan

Outlawing Price Stability: Another World First
The new RB Governor's first test is nigh - will he be a doormat in negotiating a new price targets agreement? The second test follows soon after - will the ceiling to the inflation band mean anything?...
28 August 2002 - Gareth Morgan

Bring on the Reserve Bank Patsy
When did you last hear an incumbent Minister of Finance suggesting interest rates should be raised? Don't even try. You didn't. It's in this context that the credibility of current Minister Cullen has to be judged when he suggests the Reserve Bank has been "too vigilant" in controlling inflation. For the...
3 July 2002 - Gareth Morgan

Back to School
The European Union has a balance of payments surplus and a plunging currency, the US a balance of payments deficit and a rising one. Our Ministers of Finance and Economic Development reckon our weaker currency will fix our balance of payments. The New Zealand Prime Minister prefers to advocate monetary union with Australia as a route to a...
13 September 2000 - Gareth Morgan

Credibility crisis sinks dollar
One telling symbol of the Minister of Finance's inadequate defence of the ballooning gap between this government's economic policy and common sense, is his refusal to front up to media debates, sending in ill-equipped foot soldiers like poor Trevor Mallard. Courage under fire may not be a Cullen attribute but...
30 August 2000 - Gareth Morgan

Why the ERB lowers inflation.
You could see it coming. Job loss has begun. For six months now the number of jobs in the economy has been falling. This, rather than the fact the unemployment has fallen (as people either move further into the black economy or just give up job-seeking), is the "news" in the last two Household Labour Force Surveys. There's no need for Don...
16 August 2000 - Gareth Morgan

Into the Abyss
Does this or doesn't this sum it up? My thanks to the wag that coined the following. WELLINGTON, Friday: The New Zealand dollar has continued its slide against the US Dollar and the Pound Sterling. The dollar reached historic lows mid-week, dropping below 46 NZ cents to the greenback. An NZ dollar now buys one gram of hamster...
14 June 2000 - Gareth Morgan

Another week, another drop in our dollar
The country determinedly goes to the dogs. Cutting the cloth to suit has totally gone by the board now. We are in for an exciting loss of wealth as the dopes in the policy kitchen thrash around learning which recipe is edible. We make movies not even Kiwis want to see. We have a government that blithely steps in after a bidding process to halt sales...
10 May 2000 - Gareth Morgan